Differential contagiousness of respiratory disease across the United States

IF 3 3区医学 Q2 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Epidemics Pub Date : 2023-09-22 DOI:10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100718

Abhishek Mallela , Yen Ting Lin , William S. Hlavacek

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Abstract

The initial contagiousness of a communicable disease within a given population is quantified by the basic reproduction number, $R_{0}$ . This number depends on both pathogen and population properties. On the basis of compartmental models that reproduce Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) surveillance data, we used Bayesian inference and the next-generation matrix approach to estimate region-specific $R_{0}$ values for 280 of 384 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the United States (US), which account for 95% of the US population living in urban areas and 82% of the total population. We focused on MSA populations after finding that these populations were more uniformly impacted by COVID-19 than state populations. Our maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimates for $R_{0}$ range from 1.9 to 7.7 and quantify the relative susceptibilities of regional populations to spread of respiratory diseases.

One-Sentence Summary

Initial contagiousness of Coronavirus Disease 2019 varied over a 4-fold range across urban areas of the United States.

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美国各地呼吸道疾病的不同传染性。

传染病在给定人群中的初始传染性通过基本繁殖数R0来量化。这个数字取决于病原体和种群特性。在重现2019冠状病毒病（新冠肺炎）监测数据的划分模型的基础上，我们使用贝叶斯推理和下一代矩阵方法来估计美国384个大都市统计区（MSAs）中280个的区域特异性R0值，这些统计区占美国城市人口的95%和总人口的82%。我们将重点放在MSA人群上，因为我们发现这些人群比州人口更容易受到新冠肺炎的影响。我们对R0的最大后验（MAP）估计范围为1.9至7.7，并量化了地区人群对呼吸道疾病传播的相对易感性。一节课总结：2019冠状病毒疾病的初始传染性在美国城市地区的差异超过4倍。

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来源期刊

Epidemics INFECTIOUS DISEASES-

CiteScore

6.00

自引率

7.90%

发文量

审稿时长

140 days

期刊介绍： Epidemics publishes papers on infectious disease dynamics in the broadest sense. Its scope covers both within-host dynamics of infectious agents and dynamics at the population level, particularly the interaction between the two. Areas of emphasis include: spread, transmission, persistence, implications and population dynamics of infectious diseases; population and public health as well as policy aspects of control and prevention; dynamics at the individual level; interaction with the environment, ecology and evolution of infectious diseases, as well as population genetics of infectious agents.