Lifetime probability of developing cancer and dying from cancer in Canada, 1997 to 2020.

IF 2.7 2区医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Health Reports Pub Date : 2023-09-20 DOI:10.25318/82-003-x202300900002-eng

JaiQi L Liu, Shary Xinyu Zhang, Jean-Michel Billette, Alain A Demers

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Abstract

Background: The lifetime probabilities of developing (LP_dev) cancer and dying (LP_dying) from cancer are useful summary statistics that describe the impact of cancer within a population. This study aims to present detailed LP_dev and LP_dying for cancer by sex and cancer type and to describe changes in these lifetime probabilities over time among the Canadian population.

Data and methods: Cancer incidence data (1997 to 2018) were obtained from the Canadian Cancer Registry. All-cause and cancer mortality data (1997 to 2020) were obtained from the Canadian Vital Statistics - Death Database. LP_dev and LP_dying were calculated using the DevCan software, and trends over time were estimated using Joinpoint.

Results: The LP_dev for all cancers combined was 44.3% in Canada in 2018, with all results excluding Quebec. At the age of 60, the conditional probability of developing cancer was very similar (44.0% for males and 38.2% for females). The LP_dying was 22.5% among the Canadian population in 2020, while the probability of dying from cancer conditional on surviving until age 60 was 25.1% for males and 20.5% for females. Generally, males experienced higher LP_dev and LP_dying for most specific cancers compared with females.

Interpretation: LP_dev and LP_dying for cancer mirror cancer incidence and mortality rates. Cancer-specific changes in these probabilities over time are indicative of the cancer trends resulting from cancer prevention, screening, detection, and treatment. These changes in LP_dev and LP_dying provide insight into the shifting landscape of the Canadian cancer burden.

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1997年至2020年加拿大患癌症和死于癌症的终身概率。

背景：罹患癌症和死于癌症的寿命概率是描述癌症对人群影响的有用汇总统计数据。本研究旨在介绍按性别和癌症类型分类的癌症的详细LPdev和LP死亡，并描述加拿大人群中这些寿命概率随时间的变化。数据和方法：癌症发病率数据（1997年至2018年）来自加拿大癌症登记处。所有原因和癌症死亡率数据（1997年至2020年）均来自加拿大生命统计-死亡数据库。使用DevCan软件计算LPdev和LPdying，并使用Joinpoint估计随时间的趋势。结果：2018年，加拿大所有癌症的LPdev总和为44.3%，所有结果均不包括魁北克省。在60岁时，患癌症的条件概率非常相似（男性为44.0%，女性为38.2%）。2020年，加拿大人口中的LP死亡率为22.5%，而以存活到60岁为条件死于癌症的概率男性为25.1%，女性为20.5%。一般来说，与女性相比，男性在大多数特定癌症中经历了更高的LPdev和LP死亡。解释：癌症的LPdev和LP死亡反映了癌症的发病率和死亡率。这些概率随时间的癌症特异性变化表明了癌症预防、筛查、检测和治疗导致的癌症趋势。LPdev和LPdying的这些变化为加拿大癌症负担的变化提供了见解。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Health Reports PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH-

CiteScore

7.30

自引率

4.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Health Reports publishes original research on diverse topics related to understanding and improving the health of populations and the delivery of health care. We publish studies based on analyses of Canadian national/provincial representative surveys or Canadian national/provincial administrative databases, as well as results of international comparative health research. Health Reports encourages the sharing of methodological information among those engaged in the analysis of health surveys or administrative databases. Use of the most current data available is advised for all submissions.