Spatial distribution and risk associated with shot hole disease in apricot (Prunus armeniaca L.) in Northern Pakistan

Abstract

Abstract Wilsonomyces carpophilus is the major fungus that produces shot hole disease (SHD) in apricots, which results in significant economic losses. This problem can be addressed through the monitoring of the diseases and spotlighting the risks connected with them. This study employed descriptive and geostatistical mapping techniques to track the spatial distribution and risk of SHD in apricot orchards in five apricot-growing valleys. The results showed a spatial distribution of the disease within the study area even varying within the valleys and orchards. A moderate spatial dependence of SHD prevalence (0.524), incidence (0.363), and severity index (0.313) were observed. GIS maps and trend analysis graphs also showed the spatial distribution of the disease from east-west and south-north directions. Climate and cultural practices favor the perpetuation of pathogens and the spread of SHD. This information will help apricot growers regarding disease management and improve sustainable profitability.