{"title":"The Determinants of Non-COVID-19 Excess Deaths During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Cross-country Panel Study","authors":"S. Dey, Jessie Davidson","doi":"10.1177/23210222211046412","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the determinants of non-COVID excess deaths during the COVID pandemic between January and June 2020. These are the extra deaths occurring during the pandemic which are not directly attributable to COVID. While emerging literature examines the determinants of COVID deaths, few look at non-COVID excess deaths, though early estimates suggest they are enough to be seen as a pandemic in their own count. We investigate the impact of factors including COVID deaths and cases, lockdown stringency, economic support and search intensity for non-COVID conditions on excess deaths, using Fixed Effects and GMM estimations. We also use quantile regression to assess the differential impacts of the variables at different stages of the excess death distribution. First, we find that excess deaths are increasing and concave in COVID deaths, and that the rate of growth, as well as the level, of COVID deaths has a significant and positive impact. Second, we find some evidence that stringency of lockdown increases excess deaths by a maximum of 16 extra per-million population. Third, we find a reduction in search intensity for other conditions significantly increases excess deaths, implying that policymakers should ensure public health messaging for other conditions during a pandemic. JEL Classifications: I12, I18, I11","PeriodicalId":37410,"journal":{"name":"Studies in Microeconomics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2021-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"4","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Studies in Microeconomics","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1177/23210222211046412","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Abstract
This paper examines the determinants of non-COVID excess deaths during the COVID pandemic between January and June 2020. These are the extra deaths occurring during the pandemic which are not directly attributable to COVID. While emerging literature examines the determinants of COVID deaths, few look at non-COVID excess deaths, though early estimates suggest they are enough to be seen as a pandemic in their own count. We investigate the impact of factors including COVID deaths and cases, lockdown stringency, economic support and search intensity for non-COVID conditions on excess deaths, using Fixed Effects and GMM estimations. We also use quantile regression to assess the differential impacts of the variables at different stages of the excess death distribution. First, we find that excess deaths are increasing and concave in COVID deaths, and that the rate of growth, as well as the level, of COVID deaths has a significant and positive impact. Second, we find some evidence that stringency of lockdown increases excess deaths by a maximum of 16 extra per-million population. Third, we find a reduction in search intensity for other conditions significantly increases excess deaths, implying that policymakers should ensure public health messaging for other conditions during a pandemic. JEL Classifications: I12, I18, I11
Studies in MicroeconomicsEconomics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (all)
CiteScore
1.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
14
期刊介绍:
Studies in Microeconomics seeks high quality theoretical as well as applied (or empirical) research in all areas of microeconomics (broadly defined to include other avenues of decision science such as psychology, political science and organizational behavior). In particular, we encourage submissions in new areas of Microeconomics such as in the fields of Experimental economics and Behavioral Economics. All manuscripts will be subjected to a peer-review process. The intended audience of the journal are professional economists and young researchers with an interest and expertise in microeconomics and above. In addition to full-length articles MIC is interested in publishing and promoting shorter refereed articles (letters and notes) that are pertinent to the specialist in the field of Microeconomics (broadly defined). MIC will periodically publish special issues with themes of particular interest, including articles solicited from leading scholars as well as authoritative survey articles and meta-analysis on the themed topic. We will also publish book reviews related to microeconomics, and MIC encourages publishing articles from policy practitioners dealing with microeconomic issues that have policy relevance under the section Policy Analysis and Debate.