Job Polarization and the Declining Wages of Young Female Workers in the United Kingdom*

Abstract

We examine whether the decline of routine occupations contributed to rising wage inequality between young and prime-age non-college educated women in the UK over 2001-2019. We estimate age, period, and cohort effects for the likelihood of employment in different occupations and the wages earned therein. For recent generations, cohort effects indicate a higher likelihood of employment in low-paying manual jobs relative to high-paying abstract ones. Cohort effects also underpin falling wages for post-1980 cohorts across all occupations. We find that the latter channel, rather than job polarization, has been the main driver of rising inter-age inequality among non-college females.