{"title":"Effects of Energy Prices Shocks on Global Inflation: A Panel Structural VAR Approach","authors":"M. Škare, S. B. Buric, D. Sinković","doi":"10.46544/ams.v27i4.08","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Global supply shock suffered massive disruption because of COVID-19 in the last few years. Such a shock is accompanied by an energy price surge caused by the war in Ukraine. We study the effects of energy price shocks (common, idiosyncratic) on inflation due to energy price issues. We set up a panel structural VAR (PSVAR) model to study whether energy price shocks exhibit long memory properties (persistence) having permanent (long-run) effects on global inflation. The model is modelled under Cholesky and Blanchard-Quah restrictions. We calculate medians, averages, and interquartile impulse response functions with confidence interval quantiles following bootstrapping procedure. We see energy shock impact on headline inflation last 2.5 years (slow mean-reversion) reaching pre-crisis level.","PeriodicalId":50889,"journal":{"name":"Acta Montanistica Slovaca","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2000,"publicationDate":"2023-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Acta Montanistica Slovaca","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.46544/ams.v27i4.08","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Global supply shock suffered massive disruption because of COVID-19 in the last few years. Such a shock is accompanied by an energy price surge caused by the war in Ukraine. We study the effects of energy price shocks (common, idiosyncratic) on inflation due to energy price issues. We set up a panel structural VAR (PSVAR) model to study whether energy price shocks exhibit long memory properties (persistence) having permanent (long-run) effects on global inflation. The model is modelled under Cholesky and Blanchard-Quah restrictions. We calculate medians, averages, and interquartile impulse response functions with confidence interval quantiles following bootstrapping procedure. We see energy shock impact on headline inflation last 2.5 years (slow mean-reversion) reaching pre-crisis level.
期刊介绍：
Acta Montanistica Slovaca publishes high quality articles on basic and applied research in the following fields:
geology and geological survey;
mining;
Earth resources;
underground engineering and geotechnics;
mining mechanization, mining transport, deep hole drilling;
ecotechnology and mineralurgy;
process control, automation and applied informatics in raw materials extraction, utilization and processing;
other similar fields.
Acta Montanistica Slovaca is the only scientific journal of this kind in Central, Eastern and South Eastern Europe.
The submitted manuscripts should contribute significantly to the international literature, even if the focus can be regional. Manuscripts should cite the extant and relevant international literature, should clearly state what the wider contribution is (e.g. a novel discovery, application of a new technique or methodology, application of an existing methodology to a new problem), and should discuss the importance of the work in the international context.
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