Development of a hybrid model to plan segment based optimal promotion strategy

IF 2.4 4区 管理学 Q3 BUSINESS International Journal of Market Research Pub Date : 2022-11-16 DOI:10.1177/14707853221139599
Y. Ekinci, A. Güran
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Abstract

The study addresses the long-term effects of promotions in terms of movement in a value-based segmentation (lead, iron, gold, platinum), instead of simply looking at response rates that occur shortly after the promotion. The study develops a framework for planning an optimal promotion strategy via Markov Decision Processes and Machine Learning methods for an online department store. In the first phase, the states are set as the customer profitability segments in order to conduct the MDPs. Then, MDP model is solved, and the optimal decision for each segment is determined. In the second phase, in order to aid the company for making their plans for the next year, the segment that the customer will belong to next year should be predicted. Prediction of the future customer profitability segment is performed by using several machine learning algorithms, and the best performing model is selected. Using this best performing model, the company can predict the future (potential) profitability segment of the customer and make plans which include the optimal promotions that will be directed to the customers depending on their segments (these optimal promotions are the outcomes of the first phase). The proposed framework can be applied by practitioners in e-commerce companies which keep customer data.
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基于细分市场的最优促销策略混合规划模型的建立
该研究从基于价值的细分市场(铅、铁、金、白金)的移动角度来解决促销的长期影响,而不是简单地关注促销后不久的回复率。该研究通过马尔可夫决策过程和机器学习方法为在线百货商店开发了一个规划最佳促销策略的框架。在第一阶段,为了执行MDPs,将各州设置为客户盈利能力部分。然后,对MDP模型进行求解,确定各区段的最优决策。在第二阶段,为了帮助公司制定下一年的计划,需要预测客户明年将属于哪个细分市场。通过使用几种机器学习算法对未来客户盈利能力细分进行预测,并选择表现最佳的模型。使用这个最佳表现模型,公司可以预测客户的未来(潜在)盈利部分,并制定计划,其中包括将根据客户的细分直接针对客户的最佳促销(这些最佳促销是第一阶段的结果)。所建议的框架可由电子商务公司的从业人员应用,这些公司保存客户数据。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
6.00
自引率
6.70%
发文量
38
期刊介绍: The International Journal of Market Research is the essential professional aid for users and providers of market research. IJMR will help you to: KEEP abreast of cutting-edge developments APPLY new research approaches to your business UNDERSTAND new tools and techniques LEARN from the world’s leading research thinkers STAY at the forefront of your profession
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