Modeling the Potential Distribution of Machilus thunbergii under the Climate Change Patterns in China

Abstract

The potential geographic distribution and favorable climatic conditions of Machilus thunbergii under current and future predicted climates in China are predicted based on MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software. The results show that the AUC values in different time periods and emission seniors are more than 0.9, which indicates the prediction is excellent. Precipitation of the coldest quarter, precipitation of the driest month, annual precipitation, mean diurnal range, and temperature annual range are the most important environmental factors affecting the distribution of Machilus thunbergii. At present, the suitable areas of Machilus thunbergii are mainly concentrated in the eastern subtropics of China, with a total area of 118.47 × 104 km2. The medium-suitability area and the high-suitability area are concentrated in Wuyi Mountains, Luoxiao Mountains, Xuefeng Mountains, Nanling and east of Taiwan Mountains. With the change of climate, the suitable area increases, and the medium-suitability area and high-suitability area migrate and expand to the east, and the low-suitability area expands slightly to the west and north. So, the simulated distribution of Machilus thunbergii should be one of priorities, when instigating in-situ conservation. The research results can provide a theoretical reference for the popularization and planting of Machilus thunbergii.