Multicriteria risk analysis of commodity-specific dock investments at an inland waterway port

Abstract

Abstract Managing risks to critical infrastructure systems requires decision makers to account for impacts of disruptions that render these systems inoperable. This article evaluates dock-specific resource allocation strategies to improve port preparedness by integrating a dynamic risk-based interdependency model with weighted multicriteria decision analysis techniques. A weighted decision analysis technique allows for decision makers to balance widespread impacts due to cascading inoperability with certain industries that are important to the local economy. Further analysis of the relationship between inoperability and expected economic losses is explored per commodity flowing through the port, which allows an understanding of cascading impacts through interdependent industries. Uncertainty is accounted for through the use of probability distributions of total expected loss per industry that encompass the uncertainty of the length of disruption and severity of the impact that is mitigated by alternative strategies. A set of discrete allocations options of preparedness plans is analyzed in a study of the Port of Catoosa in Oklahoma along the Mississippi River Navigation System. The economic loss analysis showed that the integration of multicriteria decision analysis helps in prioritizing strategies according to several criteria such as gross domestic product (GDP) and decision maker risk aversion that are not typically addressed when strategies are prioritized according to the average interdependent economic losses alone.