Student Loan Debt Response to Tuition Changes

Zachary Jacob Dowdy, Tennecia Dacass
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Abstract

Amid rising concerns regarding student loan debt, we examine the effect of Washington State’s College Affordability Program introduced in 2015 on undergraduate student loan debt to provide policy-makers with additional tools to help prevent another student loan debt crisis. The program reduced tuition for resident full-time undergraduate students at public colleges and universities for two consecutive academic years. This policy adoption created a natural experiment that we exploit to identify a causal link between tuition and loans. Using college-level data for the 2009–2010 through 2021–2022 academic years and employing a difference-in-differences model in conjunction with nearest-neighbor matching, we show that a decrease in college tuition following the adoption of the College Affordability Program caused a $637.96 (9 percentage-point) decline in average loans among first-time, full-time undergraduates in Washington State relative to undergraduates from matched U.S. schools. JEL Codes: G28, I22
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学生贷款债务对学费变化的反应
随着对学生贷款债务的担忧日益增加,我们研究了2015年引入的华盛顿州大学负担能力计划对本科生贷款债务的影响,为政策制定者提供了额外的工具,以帮助防止另一场学生贷款债务危机。该计划连续两学年为公立学院和大学的全日制本科生减免学费。这一政策的采用创造了一个自然的实验,我们利用它来确定学费和贷款之间的因果关系。利用2009-2010学年至2021-2022学年的大学水平数据,并结合最近邻匹配,采用差异中之差模型,我们表明,与美国匹配学校的本科生相比,采用大学负担能力计划后,大学学费的下降导致华盛顿州首次全日制本科生的平均贷款下降了637.96美元(9个百分点)。JEL代码:G28, I22
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