Predicting the potential suitable habitats of forest spices Piper capense and Aframomum corrorima under climate change in Ethiopia

Abstract

Continuing climate change may cause shifts in the adaptive ranges of plant species. But this impact is less understood for many species in the tropics. Here, we examined the distribution of the current and future potential suitable habitats of two native forest spices Piper capense and Aframomum corrorima. We have used MaxEnt software to predict the current and future suitable habitats of these species. Two future climate change scenarios, that is, middle (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP 4.5]) and extreme (RCP 8.5) scenarios for years 2050 and 2070, were used. A total of 60 and 74 occurrence data of P. capense and A. corrorima, respectively, and 22 environmental variables were included. The effects of elevation, solar radiation index (SRI) and topographic position index (TPI) on suitable habitats of these species were tested using linear model in R. Precipitation of the driest quarter, SRI and TPI significantly affect future suitable habitats of P. capense and A. corrorima. Furthermore, there are significant elevational shifts of suitable habitats for both species under future scenarios (P < 0.001). These novel suitable habitats are located in moist Afromontane and Combretum-Terminalia vegetations. Our results suggest that conservation planning for these species should consider climate change factors including assisted migration.