Assessing habitat suitability for selected woody range-expanding plant species in African mountains under climate change

Abstract

Social-ecological systems in mountains are sensitive to the effects of climate change and are being affected at rates faster than other terrestrial habitats. We need to know which species are likely to be “winners” and which are likely to be “losers” in the context of climate change. This study evaluated the current and predicted future habitat suitability of selected range-expanding woody plant species (Acacia dealbata, Leucosidea sericea, Vernonanthura phosphorica) in African mountains under climate change. These species are representative of range-expanding plants, which have the potential to affect ecosystem services. Future average temperature is projected to decline in African mountains whereas global mean temperatures are projected to increase. Climate-change models may not be capturing dynamics in the climate of African mountains, possibly due to a lack of representative climate data used in calibrating these models. Although only climate variables were assessed, potential species distribution results were considered accurate according to model evaluation metrics, and some static factors thought to influence species distribution were strongly coupled to climate. Vernonanthura phosphorica and A. dealbata are likely to spread under climate change. The extent of habitat suitable for L. sericea is predicted to decline under climate change. An improved understanding of climate change in mountain systems through better representation of mountain climates in climate-change models could enhance the accuracy of species distribution models.