Mid-21st century anthropogenic changes in extreme precipitation and snowpack projections over Newfoundland

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2020-05-04 DOI:10.1080/07011784.2020.1760140

K. Abbasnezhadi, A. Rousseau, S. Bohrn

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引用次数: 3

Abstract

Abstract Extreme precipitation events, including probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and probable maximum snow accumulation (PMSA) and 1/100 annual exceedance probability (AEP) values for precipitation (P100) and snow accumulation (expressed in snow water equivalent; SWE100) were analyzed over Newfoundland to compute the projected changes from 1971–2000 to 2041–2070. PMP and PMSA of various storm durations were simulated based on the moisture maximization of high efficiency storms. Also, P100 and SWE100 data were calculated based on the frequency analysis of liquid precipitation and snowpack data during each 30-year period. The required meteorological variables, including liquid and solid precipitation, precipitable water content, and snow accumulation, defined over a 50 × 50 km grid, were extracted from an ensemble of six regional climate model simulations provided by the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). Projections indicated that while PMP and P100 are intensifying in the future period, PMSA and SWE100 are declining. This is the first study which quantifies the impact of climate change on extreme-value characteristics of precipitation in Newfoundland. The results of the study can help stakeholders throughout the province to gain a better understanding of the impact of global warming on extreme meteorological events. Such an understanding is prerequisite to build resiliency and understand the uncertainty related to standard probable maximum flood analysis in the region.

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21世纪中期纽芬兰极端降水和积雪预估的人为变化

极端降水事件，包括可能最大降水(PMP)和可能最大积雪(PMSA)，以及降水(P100)和积雪(以雪水当量表示)的1/100年超额概率(AEP)值;对纽芬兰的SWE100进行了分析，以计算1971-2000年至2041-2070年的预估变化。基于高效风暴的水汽最大化，模拟了不同风暴持续时间的PMP和PMSA。基于每30 a的降水和积雪数据的频率分析，计算了P100和SWE100数据。从北美区域气候变化评估计划(NARCCAP)提供的6个区域气候模式模拟集合中提取所需的气象变量，包括液体和固体降水、可降水量和积雪量，定义在50 × 50 km网格上。预测表明，在未来一段时间内，PMP和P100将增强，PMSA和SWE100将下降。这是第一个量化气候变化对纽芬兰降水极端值特征影响的研究。研究结果可以帮助全省的利益相关者更好地了解全球变暖对极端气象事件的影响。这样的理解是建立弹性和理解该地区标准可能最大洪水分析相关的不确定性的先决条件。

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.