Spatial analysis of risk of morbidity and mortality by COVID-19 in Europe and the Mediterranean in the year 2020

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2020-10-27 DOI:10.30827/cuadgeo.v60i1.15492

J. Andrades-Grassi, L. Cuesta-Herrera, Guillermo Bianchi-Pérez, H. Grassi, J. López-Hernández, H. Torres-Mantilla

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引用次数: 5

Abstract

Disease mapping seeks to represent the risk of a disease. This paper focuses on the spatial analysis of risk for pandemic COVID-19 in Europe and the Mediterranean. Morbidity and mortality data for 54 countries in ratio format were used. Two hypotheses were considered, the first one is that the data are homogeneous and the second one is that the ratios are defined in a heterogeneous manner requiring the stratification on the basis of covariables and the methodology of Jenks’ intervals. Spatial risk models were applied as well as methods for the representation of clusters. The results show that the best representation is obtained with the Poisson-Gamma Model under stratification. The variations in the ratios are due to the individual policies of each country for the management of the pandemic. The cluster analysis shows that there is a high mortality process in Eastern Europe. The behavior of the pandemic should be evaluated in the space-time process as well as in other heterogeneous and highly unequal regions.

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2020年欧洲和地中海地区COVID-19发病和死亡风险的空间分析

疾病绘图试图代表疾病的风险。本文侧重于欧洲和地中海新冠肺炎大流行风险的空间分析。采用比率格式的54个国家的发病率和死亡率数据。考虑了两个假设，第一个假设是数据是同质的，第二个假设是比率是以异质的方式定义的，需要基于协变量和Jenks区间方法进行分层。应用了空间风险模型以及集群表示方法。结果表明，在分层条件下，泊松-伽玛模型得到了最佳的表示。比率的变化是由于每个国家管理疫情的个别政策造成的。聚类分析表明，东欧存在一个高死亡率的过程。疫情的行为应该在时空过程中以及在其他异质和高度不平等的地区进行评估。

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.

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