Donbas: the post-Soviet conflict that changed Europe

Abstract

ABSTRACT Without negating geopolitics, the developments in the breakaway entities of Donbas post-cessation of active war; and the fate of the dominant policy options for resolving the conflict need to be understood to explain the missing piece in the puzzle of Russia's choice for war in 2022. These territories were unable to evolve into viable socio-economic and political entities. The conflict never ended, and was spiralling by 2021; corruption was rampant; while professionalising the ‘self-defence forces' was an uphill task. Deindustrialising trends and food insecurity prompted population flight and left the areas dependant on Russian support. Ukrainian government continued with military hostilities and an economic blockade, denuding support for Ukrainian unity. These factors together with COVID movement restrictions pushed the population along an irredentist pathway: seeking integration with Russia. In the light of these changes, the dominant policy options that had previously been conceived as potential solutions fared differently. The idea that Donbas would become the viable example of Russian World failed. The option of re-joining a ‘reformed Ukraine’ failed because Ukraine moved in different direction, also pursuing security agenda considered hostile by Russia. Eventually, recognition and incorporation into Russia appeared as the only prospect left, and triggered a policy pivot.