Trend analysis of long-term rainfall data in the Upper Karoo of South Africa

Q2 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Transactions of The Royal Society of South Africa Pub Date : 2020-11-13 DOI:10.1080/0035919X.2020.1834467
C. Harmse, J. D. du Toit, A. Swanepoel, H. Gerber
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引用次数: 4

Abstract

Rainfall and stocking densities are key drivers of vegetation functioning and productivity in semi-arid regions. Below-average rainfall is of particular importance in the agricultural sector as it limits fodder availability for livestock in the short term, and can influence potential agricultural productivity through inducing the mortality of palatable perennial plant species in the long term. Changes in rainfall trends are not equal for all regions and must be quantified locally to sustainably manage natural grazing resources. The Upper Karoo has experienced considerable fluctuations in rainfall for many thousands of years, with relatively wetter and drier phases. This study analysed farm records from the past eight decades at eight sites in the Upper Karoo. The aim was to provide detailed and comparable descriptions to generate a more general understanding of rainfall at a spatial scale over this entire bioregion and to assess recent farming conditions within a historical rainfall context. A steadily increasing trend in rainfall of approximately 10 mm per decade has been observed in the Upper Karoo over the past eight decades, and the 30-year period from 1989 to 2018 was generally characterised by above-average rainfall. Presently, the farming conditions are more favourable compared to historical rainfall recorded before the year 1989.
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南非上卡鲁长期降雨数据的趋势分析
降雨和放养密度是半干旱区植被功能和生产力的关键驱动因素。低于平均水平的降雨在农业部门尤为重要,因为它在短期内限制了牲畜饲料的供应,并可能通过诱导可口的多年生植物物种的长期死亡而影响潜在的农业生产力。降雨趋势的变化在所有地区并不相同,必须在当地量化,以可持续地管理自然放牧资源。几千年来,上卡鲁地区经历了相当大的降雨波动,有相对湿润和干燥的阶段。这项研究分析了上卡鲁八个地点过去80年的农场记录。目的是提供详细和可比较的描述,以便在整个生物区域的空间尺度上对降雨有更全面的了解,并在历史降雨背景下评估最近的农业条件。在过去的80年里,上卡鲁地区的降雨量呈每十年约10毫米的稳步增长趋势,1989年至2018年的30年期间,降雨量总体上高于平均水平。目前,与1989年以前的历史降雨记录相比,农业条件更为有利。
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来源期刊
Transactions of The Royal Society of South Africa
Transactions of The Royal Society of South Africa Agricultural and Biological Sciences-Agricultural and Biological Sciences (all)
CiteScore
2.80
自引率
0.00%
发文量
15
期刊介绍: Transactions of the Royal Society of South Africa , published on behalf of the Royal Society of South Africa since 1908, comprises a rich archive of original scientific research in and beyond South Africa. Since 1878, when it was founded as Transactions of the South African Philosophical Society, the Journal’s strength has lain in its multi- and inter-disciplinary orientation, which is aimed at ‘promoting the improvement and diffusion of science in all its branches’ (original Charter). Today this includes natural, physical, medical, environmental and earth sciences as well as any other topic that may be of interest or importance to the people of Africa. Transactions publishes original research papers, review articles, special issues, feature articles, festschriften and book reviews. While coverage emphasizes southern Africa, submissions concerning the rest of the continent are encouraged.
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