{"title":"Are riskier cities more compact? An empirical study of the 11 largest census metropolitan areas in Canada, 2016","authors":"Xiaoxuan Sun , Diana Mok , Jinfei Wang","doi":"10.1111/pirs.12715","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Why are some cities more compact than others? We argue that riskier housing markets have a costlier real option; developers would require greater compensation to build now—thus, developers are being incentivized to delay, giving rise to more compact cities. We test this hypothesis cross‐sectionally for Canada's 11 largest census metropolitan areas. We interpret satellite imageries and estimate a hierarchical spatial autoregressive model to account for both the hierarchical and the spatial structure of our data. Our results show that, on average, a one‐percentage‐point increase in price risk reduces urban land coverage in the fringe by about 0.7 percentage point.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51458,"journal":{"name":"Papers in Regional Science","volume":"102 1","pages":"Pages 167-187"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3000,"publicationDate":"2023-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Papers in Regional Science","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1056819023000830","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract
Why are some cities more compact than others? We argue that riskier housing markets have a costlier real option; developers would require greater compensation to build now—thus, developers are being incentivized to delay, giving rise to more compact cities. We test this hypothesis cross‐sectionally for Canada's 11 largest census metropolitan areas. We interpret satellite imageries and estimate a hierarchical spatial autoregressive model to account for both the hierarchical and the spatial structure of our data. Our results show that, on average, a one‐percentage‐point increase in price risk reduces urban land coverage in the fringe by about 0.7 percentage point.
期刊介绍：
Regional Science is the official journal of the Regional Science Association International. It encourages high quality scholarship on a broad range of topics in the field of regional science. These topics include, but are not limited to, behavioral modeling of location, transportation, and migration decisions, land use and urban development, interindustry analysis, environmental and ecological analysis, resource management, urban and regional policy analysis, geographical information systems, and spatial statistics. The journal publishes papers that make a new contribution to the theory, methods and models related to urban and regional (or spatial) matters.
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