Ocena ważności informacji przy diagnozie trendów giełdowych przez inwestorów indywidualnych

Abstract

The aims of this study were: (1) to explore how individual investors assess the importance of macroeconomic and stock market cues in identifying market trends and (2) verifi cation of different weighting measures. In total, 176 individual Polish investors were examined with two different methods of measuring the importance of the cues. Direct measurements were carried out by asking participants to choose the 7 most important pieces of information out of a total of 16. The investors ranked these cues from most to least important. Then the participants were asked to distribute 100 points amongst the cues, so that the value assigned to each option refl ected its relative importance. Rank positions were transformed into approximate weights through the use of two methods: rank order centroid and rank-sum. Then the weights were compared to the weights explicitly provided by participants. In the second part of the experiment, 16 cues were presented on an information board. The participants were asked to select the most important cues to determine the market trend. The study showed that the results of direct and indirect measurements are consistent – in particular, that stock market cues are more important than others. Moreover, the weights assigned explicitly to the cues by participants are refl ected by the approximate weights calculated using the presented methods.