The Female Population Growth Projection Year 2021 in Trenggalek Regency by Leslie Matrix Model on the Birth Rate and Life Expectancy

Abstract

This research aims to determine the number of female residents in Trenggalek Regency in 2021 based on data on birth rate and life expectancy. The use of eigenvalues and eigenvectors aims to determine the dividing age distribution by Leslie matrix model. The eigenvectors are used to determine the number of female populations of each age interval, while the eigenvalues are used to determine population growth rates. The research method used is to determine the subject of research. The next stage is to collect research data, then analyze the data and last draw conclusions. The research data is obtained from BPS Kabupaten Trenggalek and BPS East Java Province that is data of woman population from year 2010-2015. The result of this research using Leslie matrix model for female population in Trenggalek Regency that is discrete model. The discrete model is divided into fourteen age intervals constructed using the birthrate and life expectancy. The conclusions of the study showed that the number of female population in Trenggalek Regency tended to increase with positive eigen value greater than one. In other words, the growth rate of female population in Trenggalek Regency tends to be positive. The success of Leslie's matrix model is the application of case studies in predicting the number of female populations in Trenggalek District by 2021 using the MAPLE 16 Program.