Climate change, risk perceptions and barriers to adaptation among forest growers in New Zealand.

Abstract

Climate change poses a significant challenge for forest growers. However, understanding climate change adaptation including the behaviour and decisions of forest growers remains unexplored in New Zealand, despite the forestry sector being a significant export leader and major contributor to regional economies. To explore this, we conducted surveys of 60 forest growers from organisations which collectively manage more than 70% of New Zealand's plantation forests. The results showed that 47% of the respondents perceived that climate change will affect their forest growing, and 60% perceived that climate change will increase wildfire frequency and pest and disease outbreaks. Only 21% of the respondents reported that they had taken adaptation measures directly. Lack of resources and motivation were among the barriers that respondents identified. A logistic regression analysis revealed that climate change perception, research to improve forest growers' adaptive capacity, climate change information, forest grower age and forestry experience are significantly associated with actual adaptation decisions. Risk perceptions central to protection motivation theory (e.g. vulnerability, probability and severity) were not linked to actual adaptation decisions, suggesting that widening adaptation analyses beyond individual perceptions as predictors of climate change adaptation may provide insights for fit-for-purpose climate change adaptation policies for the sector.