The impact of Russia’s aggresion on reshaping tomorrow’s world Ukraine’s future scenarios, developments, and options

Abstract

Prospective scenarios (Chifu 2022) are now piling up, on the eve of Ukraine’s announced counter-offensive to reclaim its territories and create clear strategic advantages in the perspective of any negotiations with Russia (Menon 2023). While the criteria and indicators of short and medium-term development are easier to determine, as is the aspirational goal of Ukraine to gain all its occupied territories (Wallander 2023), there are numerous inflection points that may emerge, just as a number of game-changers are looming, elements that would radically change the reality and the course of the known trend. Taking these factors into consideration, we have drafted an updated outline of Ukraine’s potential future developments, scenarios, and options in the event of a Russian full-scale war of aggression. It is important to note that these developments not only impact Ukraine but also have implications for the post-war global landscape