Potential economic impacts of foot-and-mouth disease in Brazil: A case study for Mato Grosso and Paraná

Abstract

This study investigates the economic effects of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) by employing a regional, dynamic computable general equilibrium model in tandem with results from an epidemiological model to simulate an FMD outbreak in Brazil. Outbreaks located in Paraná and Mato Grosso negatively impact other states in Brazil, demonstrating a spillover effect of economic losses beyond the region directly affected by the disease. Results highlight the distributive effects of FMD outbreaks with most of the negative impacts falling predominantly on lower income workers and households. This study shows the importance of animal disease surveillance and control and provides estimates of the potential economywide effects of an FMD outbreak in Brazil.