Political Risk and Economic Sectors: Chinese Overseas Public and Private Investment in the Developing World

Abstract

This article compares Chinese public and private overseas foreign direct investment (FDI) to determine how political risk affects an authoritarian developing country. Using panel data for up to 118 developing countries from 2003 to 2017, and studying different economic investment sectors (i.e., primary, secondary, and tertiary; energy/non-energy), we find that political risk has varying effects on Chinese overseas FDI. Chinese state firms appear to invest in higher political risk countries regardless of the economic sector, while Chinese private firms tend to invest in states who share similar political ideologies when investing in the energy/primary sector. We also find that both public and private Chinese firms choose geographically proximate countries for economically riskier investments. Our sectoral investment study offers insights into differences in Chinese public and private firms’ political risk tolerance.