Economic and political factors on herding in Islamic GCC stock markets during COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

Purpose This study aims to examine the existence of herding and the impact of economic and political factors in the Shariah-compliant stocks of Gulf Cooperation Council markets, namely, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates. This study also seeks to explore the existence of herding under market stress and cross-stocks herding between Shariah-compliant and conventional stocks. Design/methodology/approach The data period is from 1 January 2016 to 31 December 2021. Panel data regression and panel quantile regression are used to examine herding. Findings The results show that herding tends to exist in Shariah stocks before the pandemic but is more pronounced in both types of stocks during the pandemic. The empirical evidence shows that economic factors are significant to herding before and during pandemic, whereas the political factors are only shown to be significant before COVID-19. Conventional stocks are correlated to the herding of Shariah stocks but the Shariah stocks have no significant impact on the herding of conventional stocks. Panel quantile regression shows that herding exists in extreme conditions but not all markets perform similarly. Originality/value The results of this study imply that the political factor can lead investors to herd. This political factor represents information that is used by investors to herd, consistent with the prediction of information-based theory of herding. Hence, policymakers and regulators need to be wary of any change in the political factors as they may cause movement in stock prices that deviate from fundamental value because of investor herding.