Natural Gas Scarcity Risk for Countries along the Belt and Road

Abstract

The rapid development of the Belt and Road economics has generated a considerable energy demand. Under the general trend of the global energy transition, natural gas resources are becoming the main driving force. The limited natural gas resources are posing a significant risk to economies, and this risk may also be transferred to other distant regions through economic trade. The aim of this study is to explore the trans-regional (sectoral) transmission pattern of natural gas scarcity risk. The main contribution of this paper is the assessment of the local natural gas scarcity risk (LGSR) and cross-region transfer relationship of embodied natural gas scarcity risk (EGSR), which are evaluated for the BRI economies. In addition, the network amplification effect is considered when evaluating the cross-regional impact of natural gas scarcity risk. The results show that, at the national level, Turkey, Ukraine, and Bulgaria have significant EGSR related to exports activities. The natural gas scarcity risks (GSRs) originating from these countries are mainly transferred to Turkmenistan, Georgia, and Albania, with large EGSR imports. Moreover, by comparing the ranking changes of EGSR imports, EGSR exports, and LGSRs at the national and sectoral levels, countries or sectors with higher LGSRs also have higher EGSR exports. The Top EGSR import and export network consisting of top EGSR flow relationships can well reflect countries’ preferences in choosing EGSR transfer partners. The results suggest that upstream countries and sectors should strengthen cooperation to manage natural gas resources, and provide references for decision makers in highly vulnerable downstream countries and sectors to formulate strategies to avoid the large-scale spread of economic losses caused by natural gas scarcity.