Application of spatial multicriteria decision analysis in healthcare: Identifying drivers and triggers of infectious disease outbreaks using ensemble learning

Abstract

Modelling infectious diseases is a complex and multi-disciplinary problem that necessitates the combined use of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) and machine learning (ML) in a spatial framework. This research attempts to demonstrate the extensive applications of MCDA in the field of public health and to illustrate its utility with the combined use of spatial models and machine learning. The study investigates the risk factors for communicable diseases with a focus on vector-borne infectious diseases, such as West Nile Virus (WNV), malaria, dengue, etc. It aims to quantify vector-borne disease risk by examining the geographic contextual effects of socio-economic, climatic, and environmental factors using the objective-weighting technique adopted from MCDA and machine learning in a geographic information systems (GIS) framework. The authors attempted to minimize subjective bias from the decision space by utilizing an objective-weighted technique to quantify the risk. The study adopted Shannon's entropy to derive weights for each factor and its classes. The derived weighted layers are fed to an artificial neural network to obtain a final map of risk susceptibility. This final risk map allows policymakers to examine vulnerable areas and identify the factors pivotal to the contribution of risk. Findings show the traffic volume as the most influential variable, and terrain slope as the least one in the disease spread for the study area. The risk appears to be concentrated and distributed along vegetation, wetlands, and around water bodies. The results produced by ensemble learning show great promise with more than 94% accuracy. The accuracy of the results was determined by the confusion matrix and the kappa index of agreement (KIA). The vector control programmes need to adapt to better manage the dynamic changes in patterns involving vector-borne infectious diseases.