AN ESTIMATION OF NUMBER OF DAILY DEATHS DUE TO COVID-19 IN UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, UNITED KINGDOM AND TURKEY

Abstract

Covid-19 virus is threatening the world with health, social and economic implications and all around the world data is obtained continuously with pandemic for modelling and predicting the future. In this work, support vector regression technique was used to make some predictions on the daily death values due to Covid-19 virus. The models were created for the world, United States of America, United Kingdom and Turkey. All the regression models were tested using coefficient of determination (R2) and root mean square error (RMSE) values. The analysis was also conducted for comparing the suitability of linear, radial and polynomial kernels. The radial kernel produced relatively better results. In predicting the world data support vector regression with radial kernel produced 0.805262 R2 value on test data. In the models created for United States of America 0.723376 R2 value, for United Kingdom 0.95412 R2 value and for Turkey 0.875343 R2 value using test data were observed. Also, while the models were created for specific countries the comparisons were made between using only data for the country and also using the whole world data. In general modelling using the data for the world combined with the country data gave better prediction.