Oil prices and gold prices on housing market in China: novel findings from the bootstrap approach

IF 1.5 Q3 URBAN STUDIES International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis Pub Date : 2022-12-15 DOI:10.1108/ijhma-09-2022-0132

Mumtaz Ali, A. Samour, Foday Joof, Turgut Tursoy

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引用次数: 2

Abstract

Purpose This study aims to assess how real income, oil prices and gold prices affect housing prices in China from 2010 to 2021. Design/methodology/approach This study uses a novel bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) testing to empirically analyze the short and long links among the tested variables. Findings The ARDL estimations demonstrate a positive impact of oil price shocks and real income on housing market prices in both the phrases of the short and long run. Furthermore, the results reveal that gold price shocks negatively affect housing prices both in the short and long run. The result can be attributed to China’s housing market and advanced infrastructure, resulting in a drop in housing prices as gold prices increase. Additionally, the prediction of housing market prices will provide a base and direction for housing market investors to forecast housing prices and avoid losses. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt to analyze the effect of gold price shocks on housing market prices in China.

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石油价格和黄金价格对中国房地产市场的影响:自举方法的新发现

本研究旨在评估2010 - 2021年中国实际收入、石油价格和黄金价格对房价的影响。设计/方法/方法本研究采用一种新颖的自举自回归分布滞后(ARDL)检验来实证分析被测变量之间的长短联系。研究结果表明，无论是在短期还是长期，石油价格冲击和实际收入对住房市场价格都有积极影响。此外，研究结果表明，黄金价格冲击在短期和长期都对房价产生负向影响。这一结果可以归因于中国的房地产市场和先进的基础设施，导致金价上涨，房价下跌。此外，对住房市场价格的预测将为住房市场投资者预测房价，避免损失提供依据和方向。原创性/价值据作者所知，这是第一次尝试分析黄金价格冲击对中国房地产市场价格的影响。

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来源期刊

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis URBAN STUDIES-

CiteScore

2.80

自引率

29.40%

发文量