News coverage vs sentiment: evaluating German residential real estate markets

Abstract

Purpose To investigate whether additional information of the permanent news flow, especially reporting intensity, can help to increase transparency in housing markets, this study aims to examine the relationship between news coverage or news sentiment and residential real estate prices in Germany at a regional level. Design/methodology/approach Using methods in the field of natural language processing, in particular word embeddings and dictionary-based sentiment analyses, the authors derive five different sentiment measures from almost 320,000 news articles of two professional German real estate news providers. These sentiment indicators are used as covariates in a first difference fixed effects regression to investigate the relationship between news coverage or news sentiment and residential real estate prices. Findings The empirical results suggest that the ascertained news-based indicators have a significant positive relationship with residential real estate prices. It appears that the combination of news coverage and news sentiment proves to be a reliable indicator. Furthermore, the extracted sentiment measures lead residential real estate prices up to two quarters. Finally, the explanatory power increases when regressing on prices for condominiums compared with houses, implying that the indicators may rather reflect investor sentiment. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper to extract both the news coverage and news sentiment from real estate-related news for regional German housing markets. The approach presented in this study to quantify additional qualitative data from texts is replicable and can be applied to many further research areas on real estate topics.