Relationships between socio-demographic structure and spatio-temporal distribution patterns of COVID-19 cases in Istanbul, Turkey

Abstract

ABSTRACT This study aims to find out specific relationships between socio-demographic and spatio-temporal distribution patterns of COVID-19 cases. Istanbul being one of the most dynamic and overpopulated cities in Turkey is chosen as the case area. The study explores the spatio-temporal spread pattern of COVID-19 between 24 September and 12 December 2020 in 960 neighbourhoods of Istanbul using spatial statistical analysis. Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) methods are used to explain how socio-demographic structure and intensity of COVID-19 cases are related. The results of the study show that gender, household size, and population density are important drivers of exposure to COVID-19. Education level is also found statistically significant though having a weaker effect on spatio-temporal distribution pattern of COVID-19. It is anticipated that the findings of this study will be used by the decision-makers to take action to control the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic – and any other upcoming and unexpected diseases – and to improve the existing conditions to overcome such vulnerabilities to possible risk factors.