Energy scenarios for Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area towards a sustainable 2050: A TIMES-VEDA analysis

Abstract

The study develops energy scenarios for Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area (GKMA). GKMA is Uganda's capital metropolis with no focused energy policy framework. The study uses TIMES-VEDA to assess sustainable low-carbon development using BAU, Kabejja, Carbon-Tax, and Lutta scenarios. The study examines commercial, industrial, transportation, residential, agricultural, and electricity generation activities that support economic development. BAU is the baseline case with limited commitment to a low-carbon future. Kabejja, Carbon-Tax, and Lutta are the alternative scenarios with distinct carbon abatement policies. The bottom-up analysis suggests that should policy trends continue as BAU, consumption, and CO₂ emissions upsurge significantly. However, consumption and carbon emissions lessen as the energy management system tends to a near-zero carbon abatement strategy. Lutta is the best pathway for a sustainable future, provided the metropolis adopts the low-carbon electrification of the GKMA energy policy, with the setting up of an electrified Kampala metro becoming the central focus for future policy shifts over the planning horizon.