Social tipping points everywhere?—Patterns and risks of overuse

Abstract

The last few years have witnessed an explosion of interest in the concept of social tipping points (STPs), understood as nonlinear processes of transformative change in social systems. A growing body of interdisciplinary scholarship has been focusing in particular on social tipping related to climate change. In contrast with tipping point studies in the natural sciences–for example climate tipping points and ecological regime shifts–STPs are often conceptualized as desirable, offering potential solutions to pressing problems. Drawing on a well‐established definition for tipping points, and a qualitative review of articles that explicitly treat social tipping points as potential solutions to climate change, this article identifies four deleterious patterns in the application of the STP concept in this recent wave of research on nonlinear social change: (i) premature labeling, (ii) not defining system boundaries and scales of analysis, (iii) not providing evidence for all characteristics of tipping processes, and (iv) not making use of existing social theories of change. Jointly, these patterns create a trend of overusing the concept. Recognizing and avoiding these patterns of “seeing the world through tipping point glasses” is important for the quality of scientific knowledge generated in this young field of inquiry and for future science‐policy interactions related to climate change. Future research should seek to identify empirical evidence for STPs while remaining open to the possibility that many social change processes are not instances of tipping, or that certain systems might not be prone to nonlinear change.