Quantile regression analysis of time-space variation characteristics of tropical cyclones in the west North Pacific basin under global warming

Abstract

ABSTRACT The enormous economic losses and casualties were caused by tropical cyclones in the southeast coastal areas of China every year. In order to understand the time-space variation characteristics of tropical cyclones (including intensity, minimum central atmosphere pressure, duration, and generation position) in the global and the western North Pacific basin, the monthly and interannual variation characteristics of tropical cyclones from 1949 to 2018 were analyzed by the quantile regression method and least square regression method. The results show that the global climate temperature and the annual maximum wind speed of tropical cyclones have a tendency to increase under different quantiles. While the maximum wind speed of tropical cyclones generated in the WNP basin basically decreases with the increase of years in El Niño, La Niña, and normal years under different quantiles. It is obvious that the interannual variation of the maximum wind speed of tropical cyclones is affected by the ENSO events. Similarly, minimum central atmospheric pressure, duration, and generation position of TCs from 1949 to 2018 are also analyzed in the present study. The results of this study can provide an effective reference for data analysis and trend prediction of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific basin.