Preparing Scientists, Policymakers, and Managers for a Fast-Forward Future

Q3 Agricultural and Biological Sciences San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science Pub Date : 2020-06-07 DOI:10.15447/SFEWS.2021V19ISS2ART2
R. Norgaard, J. Wiens, S. Brandt, E. Canuel, T. Collier, V. Dale, H. Fernando, T. Holzer, S. Luoma, V. Resh
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引用次数: 3

Abstract

Ecosystems in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta are changing rapidly, as are ecosystems around the world. Extreme events are becoming more frequent and thresholds are likely to be crossed more often, creating greater uncertainty about future conditions. The accelerating speed of change means that ecological systems may not remain stable long enough for scientists to understand them, much less use their research findings to inform policy and management. Faced with these challenges, those involved in science, policy, and management must adapt and change and anticipate what the ecosystems may be like in the future. We highlight several ways of looking ahead—scenario analyses, horizon scanning, expert elicitation, and dynamic planning—and suggest that recent advances in distributional ecology, disturbance ecology, resilience thinking, and our increased understanding of coupled human–natural systems may provide fresh ways of thinking about more rapid change in the future. To accelerate forward-looking science, policy, and management in the Delta, we propose that the State of California create a Delta Science Visioning Process to fully and openly assess the challenges of more rapid change to science, policy, and management and propose appropriate solutions, through legislation, if needed.
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让科学家、政策制定者和管理者为快速前进的未来做好准备
萨克拉门托-圣华金三角洲的生态系统正在迅速变化,世界各地的生态系统也是如此。极端事件正变得越来越频繁,跨越阈值的可能性也越来越大,这给未来的情况带来了更大的不确定性。变化的加速意味着生态系统可能无法保持足够长的稳定时间,让科学家能够了解它们,更不用说利用他们的研究成果为政策和管理提供信息了。面对这些挑战,那些参与科学、政策和管理的人必须适应和改变,并预测生态系统未来的样子。我们强调了展望未来的几种方法——情景分析、水平扫描、专家启发和动态规划,并建议最近在分布生态学、干扰生态学、弹性思维方面的进展,以及我们对耦合的人-自然系统的日益加深的理解,可能为思考未来更快速的变化提供新的方法。为了加速三角洲地区前瞻性的科学、政策和管理,我们建议加利福尼亚州建立一个三角洲科学展望过程,以全面和公开地评估科学、政策和管理的快速变化所带来的挑战,并在必要时通过立法提出适当的解决方案。
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来源期刊
San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science
San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science Environmental Science-Water Science and Technology
CiteScore
2.90
自引率
0.00%
发文量
24
审稿时长
24 weeks
期刊最新文献
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