Analysis of Spread Dynamics of Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV

Q4 Engineering 电子科技大学学报 Pub Date : 2020-05-01 DOI:10.12178/1001-0548.6_2020067
Liang Kai-hao, Zhang Wen-feng, Zhang Xiao-hua, WU Zhuo-kui, Liu Qin, Zhang Chao-long, Li Zi-long
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to reveal the spread dynamics of COVID-19, SARS and MERS. Based on the growth rate and infection inhibition constant of infectious diseases, the propagation growth model of infectious diseases is established, and then the parameters of the propagation growth model of three coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, are obtained by nonlinear fitting. The analysis shows that the growth rate of SARS-CoV-2 is about twice that of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, and the doubling period of SARS-CoV-2 is two to three days. The infection inhibition constant in Hubei province is two orders of magnitude lower than that in other areas, which is consistent with the situation in Hubei.
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冠状病毒SARS-CoV-2、SARS-CoV和MERS-CoV的传播动态分析
本文的目的是揭示COVID-19, SARS和MERS的传播动态。基于传染病的生长速率和感染抑制常数,建立了传染病的传播生长模型,然后通过非线性拟合得到了SARS-CoV-2、SARS-CoV和MERS-CoV三种冠状病毒的传播生长模型参数。分析表明,SARS-CoV-2的生长速度约为SARS-CoV和MERS-CoV的两倍,SARS-CoV-2的倍增期为2 ~ 3天。湖北省的感染抑制常数比其他地区低两个数量级,这与湖北省的情况一致。
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来源期刊
电子科技大学学报
电子科技大学学报 Engineering-Electrical and Electronic Engineering
CiteScore
1.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
7228
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