Trajectories of the personal vote under open-list proportional representation: Evidence from Finland, 1999–2019

Abstract

Little research has focused on how legislative candidates’ personal electoral support develops over time and why. This study examines the vote trajectories of individual candidates and how they vary according to candidates’ personal vote-earning attributes. Longitudinal data on over 1700 candidates who between 1999 and 2019 participated in two or more parliamentary elections in the Finnish open-list proportional representation system are analysed. The findings show that the average legislative candidate’s personal support increases more rapidly in the beginning of his or her electoral career and then slows down gradually over time. However, there is large heterogeneity in vote trajectories depending on candidates’ socio-demographic characteristics and personal vote-earning attributes. Some candidates enjoy instant success (local councillors and celebrity candidates), others do not win more votes initially but manage to build loyal personal followings in their district and receive positive returns from repeated candidacy (young, women, and locally rooted candidates).