Sotaro Mori, T. Shimura, T. Miyashita, A. Webb, N. Mori
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
ABSTRACT We analyzed tropical cyclones (TC) based on the theory of Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) and Maximum Potential Surge (MPS) for a long-term assessment of extreme TC intensity and storm surge heights. We investigated future changes in the MPI fields and MPS for different global warming levels based on 150-year continuous scenario projections (HighResMIP) and large ensemble climate projections (d4PDF/d2PDF). Focusing on the Western North Pacific Ocean (WNP), we analyzed future changes in the MPI and found that it reached a maximum in the latitudinal range of 30–40°N in September. We also analyzed future changes in the MPS in major bays of East Asia and along the Pacific coast of Japan. Future changes in the MPS were projected, and it was confirmed that changes in the MPS are larger in bays where large storm surge events have occurred in the past.
期刊介绍：
Coastal Engineering Journal is a peer-reviewed medium for the publication of research achievements and engineering practices in the fields of coastal, harbor and offshore engineering. The CEJ editors welcome original papers and comprehensive reviews on waves and currents, sediment motion and morphodynamics, as well as on structures and facilities. Reports on conceptual developments and predictive methods of environmental processes are also published. Topics also include hard and soft technologies related to coastal zone development, shore protection, and prevention or mitigation of coastal disasters. The journal is intended to cover not only fundamental studies on analytical models, numerical computation and laboratory experiments, but also results of field measurements and case studies of real projects.
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