A cybernetic view on international stability under multiple sanctions and counter-sanctions

Abstract

In the paper, a simple discrete dynamical model for the dynamics of two antagonistic parties (opponents) under iterated sanctions and counter-sanctions is proposed. The model is inspired by the Osipov-Lanchester model for combats. Simple stability criteria are derived both for the full information case and for the stochastic uncertainty case. A cybernetic (controlled) version of the model described by bilinear difference equations is proposed. The results provide some important qualitative conclusions that are interpreted in terms of international stability preservation. The risks of global instability caused by a further increase of sanctions intensity are formulated and a possible way of controlling the situation by small actions based on the mutual trust of parties is proposed. The author hopes that the proposed mathematical models can bring humanity closer to understanding and updating the mechanisms of achieving sustainable and safe development even in the face of tough sanctions confrontation.