GE15: opening up new vistas for comparative research on Malaysian politics

Abstract

The 15 General Election (GE15) in Malaysia, which took place on the 19 November 2022, resulted in a second peaceful transition of power to a new governing coalition following Pakatan Harapan’s (PH) defeat of Barisan Nasional (BN) for the first time in Malaysia’s electoral history in the 14 General Election held on 9 May 2018. It marks Malaysia’s fulfilment of Huntington’s ‘two-turnover’ rule for a democracy. It also likely signals a transition away from studying Malaysia as a dominant party authoritarian regime to understanding it as a more ‘normal’ consolidating democracy like Taiwan and Mexico post-2000. The more competitive electoral and constantly evolving political landscape in Malaysia is a welcome development for political scientists who study politics in ethnically divided societies, democratic change and electoral reform in authoritarian regimes, and the dynamics of electoral coalitions, just to mention three areas in which Malaysia often finds itself, from a comparative politics perspective. The increase in data points and variations not only provides more room for academic research within Malaysia but also provides opportunities for useful comparisons with other countries that share similar characteristics with Malaysia in several aspects. The emergence of different configurations of coalition competition and cooperation at the state and federal levels can contribute interesting insights into how electoral incentives and political institutions shape and influence governing coalitions. For example, how much is PH willing to concede to BN at the upcoming state elections in terms of seat allocation as a means of stabilising the federal government and perhaps of establishing a longer-term alliance with the BN in future general elections? How willing is Gabungan Party Sarawak (GPS) to work with PH in government at the federal level but accept competition from PH at the state level in future elections? The intra and interparty dynamics within and between coalitions will provide fascinating opportunities to test various political science hypotheses on the behaviour of parties and political coalitions using Malaysia as a test case. Greater political competition has also increased the bargaining power of regional parties especially those in Sarawak and, to a lesser extent, in Sabah. The contribution of GPS in terms of the parliamentary seats it brought to the table post GE15 resulted in the nomination of the first East Malaysian Deputy Prime Minister in the country’s history. With its increase in their bargaining position, parties in Sabah and Sarawak will likely push for greater decentralisation on policy and fiscal matters. They may receive