Prevention- Versus Promotion-Focus Regulatory Efforts on the Disease Incidence and Mortality of COVID-19: A Multinational Diffusion Study Using Functional Data Analysis

Abstract

International marketing has rarely explored the diffusion patterns of the spread of a disease or analyzed the factors explaining the differences in the disease incidence patterns. The rapid diffusion of the novel coronavirus has engulfed the entire world in a very short time. Many countries experienced different levels of disease incidence and mortality despite implementing similar nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Drawing on the regulatory focus theory, the authors propose a framework to conceptualize and investigate the comparative efficacy of diverse NPIs that countries could adopt to prevent or curtail the diffusion of the disease incidence and mortality. They categorize these NPIs as prevention focused (containment and closures) or promotion focused (relief measures and public health infrastructure) and discuss the moderating factors that enhance or impede their effectiveness. Employing functional data analysis, the authors examine a comprehensive data set across 70 countries. They find that prevention-focused interventions inhibit disease incidence, while promotion-focused interventions enhance the nation’s ability to respond to medical emergencies and augment people’s ability to isolate themselves and slow the spread. The authors also generate insights on how a reallocation of resources between prevention- and promotion-focused efforts influence the evolution of disease incidence and mortality, with various countries falling in different clusters.