When Unipolarity Dies: The Russo-Ukrainian War, the End of the Neoliberal Order and Asian Security in the 2020s

Abstract

The end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union allowed for a period of US-centered unipolarity in global affairs. This period has ended;it will not return. Moreover, the delicate neoliberal world order crafted by the United States and its allies is collapsing, unable to endure the stress of the COVID-19 crisis and its aftermath. The rise of China does not, however, mean that the world is returning to a long period of bipolarity --reminiscent of the US-Soviet Cold War. Rather, the United States and China simply happen to be far greater than any of their potential competitors at present-the globe is in a condition of "incomplete multi-polarity." The multipolar system is maturing rapidly, however, and it is to be expected that an increasing number of great and medium powers will pursue their interests unilaterally and assertively. This period of deepening multi-polarity is dangerous. It may plausibly culminate in a Third World War. This analysis examines immediate and longer-term dangers accompanying the new multi-polarity, with particular emphasis on how the security of East and South Asia is inextricably linked.