{"title":"Geopolitical tensions, opec news, and the oil price: A Granger causality analysis","authors":"Carlos A. Medel","doi":"10.4067/S0718-88702020000200057","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"To what extent geopolitical tensions in major oil-producer countries and unexpected news related to the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) affect oil price? What are the effects of non-market externalities in oil price? Are oil price forecasters aware or affected by such externalities when making their predictions? In this article, I analyse the influence of these events on oil price by means of Granger causality, using a unique measure of geopolitical events accounting for supply disruptions for the 2001-12 period. I found evidence favouring OPEC countries'-related news as an oil price driver jointly with supply disruptions influencing short-term forecasts, and reducing the consensus when unanticipated news are available. When considering separately OPEC news or other supply disruptions, the evidence is rather episodic.","PeriodicalId":38640,"journal":{"name":"Revista de Analisis Economico","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2020-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Revista de Analisis Economico","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.4067/S0718-88702020000200057","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Abstract
To what extent geopolitical tensions in major oil-producer countries and unexpected news related to the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) affect oil price? What are the effects of non-market externalities in oil price? Are oil price forecasters aware or affected by such externalities when making their predictions? In this article, I analyse the influence of these events on oil price by means of Granger causality, using a unique measure of geopolitical events accounting for supply disruptions for the 2001-12 period. I found evidence favouring OPEC countries'-related news as an oil price driver jointly with supply disruptions influencing short-term forecasts, and reducing the consensus when unanticipated news are available. When considering separately OPEC news or other supply disruptions, the evidence is rather episodic.
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