Poverty dynamics and vulnerability to poverty: An empirical analysis using general household surveys

Abstract

Background: This study analysed determinants of vulnerability to poverty in South Africa utilising the General Household Surveys from 2012 to 2015. Data source and methods: The Foster Greere Thorbecke poverty index by groups and income components using the Shapley Value was used to identify household vulnerability status. A multinomial logit model was used to investigate factors that contribute to vulnerability to poverty. Results: The study findings pointed out that high-income variability contributes to vulnerability and poverty among urban and rural areas. Additionally, the findings of the study demonstrated that only a few households fall in the middle (lower bound) poverty lines. Conclusions: Race and location are strong predictors of poverty in South Africa.