Reasoning under uncertainty within the context of probability education: A case study of preservice mathematics teachers

IF 0.3 Q4 EDUCATION, SCIENTIFIC DISCIPLINES Pythagoras Pub Date : 2021-12-17 DOI:10.4102/pythagoras.v42i1.630
Samah Gamal Ahmed Elbehary
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

Interpreting phenomena under uncertainty stands as a substantial cognitive activity in our daily life. Furthermore, in probability education research, there is a need for developing a unified model that involves several probabilistic conceptions. From this aspect, a central inquiry has been raised through this study: how do preservice mathematics teachers (PSMTs) reason under uncertainty? A multiple case study design was operated in which a purposive sample of PSMTs was selected to justify their reasoning in two probabilistic contexts while their responses were coded by NVivo, and corresponding categories were developed. As a result, PSMTs’ probabilistic reasoning was classified into mathematical (M), subjective (S), and outcome-oriented (O). Besides, several biases emerged along with these modes of reasoning. While M thinkers shared equiprobability and insensitivity to prior probability, the prediction bias and the belief of Allah’s willingness were yielded among S thinkers. Also, the causal conception spread among O thinkers.
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概率教育背景下的不确定性推理——以职前数学教师为例
在不确定性下解释现象是我们日常生活中一项重要的认知活动。此外,在概率教育研究中,需要建立一个包含多个概率概念的统一模型。在此基础上,本研究提出了一个核心问题:职前数学教师在不确定性下如何进行推理?在多案例研究设计中,我们选择了一个有目的的psmt样本来证明他们在两种概率背景下的推理,而他们的回答由NVivo编码,并形成相应的类别。结果表明,psmt的概率推理可分为数学型(M)、主观性(S)和结果导向型(O)三种类型,并存在一定的偏差。M个思考者具有等概率和对先验概率不敏感的特征,而S个思考者具有预测偏差和相信安拉意愿的特征。此外,因果概念在O思想家中传播。
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来源期刊
Pythagoras
Pythagoras EDUCATION, SCIENTIFIC DISCIPLINES-
CiteScore
1.50
自引率
16.70%
发文量
12
审稿时长
20 weeks
期刊介绍: Pythagoras is a scholarly research journal that provides a forum for the presentation and critical discussion of current research and developments in mathematics education at both national and international level. Pythagoras publishes articles that significantly contribute to our understanding of mathematics teaching, learning and curriculum studies, including reports of research (experiments, case studies, surveys, philosophical and historical studies, etc.), critical analyses of school mathematics curricular and teacher development initiatives, literature reviews, theoretical analyses, exposition of mathematical thinking (mathematical practices) and commentaries on issues relating to the teaching and learning of mathematics at all levels of education.
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