Modelling the Optimal Electricity Mix for Togo by 2050 Using OSeMOSYS

Esso-Wazam Honoré Tchandao, A. Salami, K. M. Kodjo, Amy Nabiliou, Seydou Ouedraogo
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Abstract

This work uses bottom-up modeling to explore the future evolution trajectories of the electricity mix in Togo by 2050. The objective is to investigate the evolution of the mix and the future investments needed to achieve the sustainable energy and climate change goals. Three scenarios were developed using OSeMOSYS. The reference scenario, named Business As Usual, closely reflects the evolution of the Togolese electricity sector under a business-as-usual assumption and planned capacity increases up to 2030. The second scenario, Net Zero by 2050, is based on the first scenario while ensuring that CO2 emissions cancel out in 2050 by following the Weibull law. The third scenario called Emission Penalty aims not only at the integration of renewable energies like the second one but also at the least cost electricity mix if emission penalties are applied. The results of the cost optimization indicate that photovoltaic and importation are the optimal choices ahead of gas and hydropower. The renewable energy aspect of the electricity mix is more highlighted in the last scenario. At the same time, the model shows that greater energy independence is achievable at the cost of a transitory increase in the cost of the electricity system. A tenfold investment effort is needed in 2030 to ensure either continuity of the status quo or a shift in strategy.
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使用OSeMOSYS模拟多哥到2050年的最佳电力组合
这项工作使用自下而上的建模来探索到2050年多哥电力结构的未来演变轨迹。目标是调查组合的演变以及实现可持续能源和气候变化目标所需的未来投资。使用OSeMOSYS开发了三个场景。名为“照常营业”的参考情景密切反映了多哥电力行业在照常营业假设下的发展,并计划在2030年前增加容量。第二种情景,即2050年实现净零排放,基于第一种情景,同时通过遵循威布尔定律确保2050年二氧化碳排放量抵消。第三种情况称为“排放惩罚”,其目标不仅是像第二种情况一样整合可再生能源,而且如果实施排放惩罚,还旨在实现成本最低的电力组合。成本优化结果表明,光伏和进口是天然气和水电之前的最佳选择。电力结构的可再生能源方面在最后一种情况下更加突出。同时,该模型表明,以电力系统成本的短暂增加为代价,可以实现更大的能源独立性。到2030年,需要进行十倍的投资,以确保现状的连续性或战略的转变。
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CiteScore
4.50
自引率
16.00%
发文量
83
审稿时长
8 weeks
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