Testing the Validity of the Triple Deficit Hypothesis for Nigeria

Abstract

This paper tests the validity of the triple deficit hypothesis in Nigeria by examining the causal relationship among current account deficit, financial account deficit, and fiscal deficit within a five-variate ARDL framework complemented with GMM framework for the period 2008-2017 using quarterly data. The paper obviates the variable omission bias that characterizes most existing studies. The ARDL-bound testing technique confirms that there is the presence of a long-run bi-causal relationship between current account and financial account deficits in Nigeria. The results based on the model and empirical outputs suggest that authorities of this economy must put in place a fully fiscal and monetary discipline policy that should ensure the drastic curtailment of fiscal deficit and create a conducive environment to attract foreign remittances and foreign investment, which would help to generate healthy external balances. In addition, exchange rate stability can promote the export sector and minimize external imbalances through creating critical surpluses in current accounts, including related comprehensive discipline policies that may be pursued, which enable the external sector, financial and fiscal sectors, and monetary sector to perform without creating adverse imbalances in this economy.