Statistical and SWAT Model-Based Performance Evaluation of RCMs in Modeling Streamflow and Sediment Yield at Upper Awash Sub-Basin, Ethiopia

Abstract

The focus of this study was to evaluate the performance of the regional climate models with regard to simulating streamflow, sediment yield, precipitation, and temperatures. It is recognized that RCMs are not free of bias and uncertainty when simulating climate variables. The evaluation was about simulating annual climatology, annual cycles, and annual variability of climate variables by statistical tools and streamflow and sediment yield by SWAT model output. The study used observed and CORDEX Africa-44 meteorological data for RACMO22T, RCA4, CCLM4-8-17, and HIRHAM5 models using grid points. This analysis of the mean annual rainfall cycle in the summer season shows that all RCMs were underestimated. However, RACMO22T and RCA4 are better suited for simulating climate variables. The higher errors were associated with the simulations of maximum and minimum temperatures in the highest terrain area of the catchment. The statistical analysis with climatology indicates that all RCM was performed in much the same way, except for the seasonal perspective. In this case, RACMO22T was best able to simulate streamflow and sediment yield with PBIAS of 0.14, NSE of 0.91, R2 of 0.82, R2 of 0.72, NSE of 0.78, and PBIAS of −2.61%, respectively. RCA4 simulated streamflow better, but it underestimated the simulated sediment yield. The result proved that RACMO22T and RCA4 performed better in the upper floodplain area. The performance of the climate model varied with catchments, locations, and terrains. The output of this statistical and SWAT model shows that climate models do not accurately simulate hydro-climatological variables. Finally, this study showed that climate models were better at simulating the rainy season than the dry season. This integration of statistical tools and the SWAT model to analyze the RCM’s performance is a unique method to improve the quality of the output for its implementation in maintaining water balance and sediment load reduction.