Russian energy balance, energy efficiency, and energy-related GHG emission accounting system

Abstract

This paper presents a newly developed Russian energy efficiency and energy-related GHG emission accounting system (EE-EGHG-AS) and discusses the results obtained. This system is designed to account for the energy efficiency progress as achieved in 12 sectors and 80 economic activities and to capture the impacts of 7 factors with a focus on the technological factor. It helped to reveal that in 2015–2021, the technological factor contributed to the 4.3% decline in GDP energy intensity (whereas the traditionally estimated GDP energy intensity was 3.6% up). If non-energy use is excluded, then energy intensity was 2.8% down, which brings the 2021 energy intensity level 15% below the traditional estimates. For some activities, the EE-EGHG-AS has demonstrated a limited ability to adequately assess the contribution made by the technological factor to crashing into, and recovering from, COVID-19-like crises, because the statistically reported data is scarce. With little progress towards energy efficiency improvements Russia is still one of the most energy-intensive countries in the world. Little progress in energy efficiency over the recent years has created the “super-coupling” effect for Russia in 2020–2021 and it is extremely challenging to attain the country’s carbon neutrality target by 2060.