Evaluating uncertainty in nonlinear hydrological models using VIC-3D model on the Umeå River basin

Abstract

A considerable environmental and developmental challenge the water resources management is now facing is the Saeed Khorram climate change for the evaluation of which a macro-scale model (physically-based with high-resolution) has been designed to be tested on the Umea River basin, Sweden. The model helps a better understanding of the impacts of the local and global climate changes on the environment for those who are interested in studying such issues. Effort has been made in this paper to introduce the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) macro-scale hydrological model, how it is used in land environmental issues, and weather forecasting. To obtain the soil, vegetation, and forcing data required by the VIC-3L model, use was made of the information of seven meteorological stations and the regional regression method. The forcing data were from 1980-2010 and the data resolution for the basin was 1 × 1 km. The model was applied to the basin in question and the simulated runoff was routed to the above mentioned seven stations' outlets. A comparison of the observed stream-flow with those of the seven stations showed that the model could simulate acceptably.