José Valentim Machado Vicente, Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins
{"title":"A volatility smile-based uncertainty index","authors":"José Valentim Machado Vicente, Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins","doi":"10.1007/s10436-021-00384-6","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We propose a new uncertainty index based on the discrepancy of the smile of FX options. We show that our index spikes near turbulent periods, forecasts economic activity and its innovations hold a significant and negative equity premium. Unlike other uncertainty indexes, our index is supported by equilibrium models, which relate the difference of options prices across moneyness to uncertainty. Moreover, our index is based on investment decisions, can be easily and continuously updated and is comparable across countries.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45289,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8000,"publicationDate":"2021-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1007/s10436-021-00384-6","citationCount":"3","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Annals of Finance","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10436-021-00384-6","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Abstract
We propose a new uncertainty index based on the discrepancy of the smile of FX options. We show that our index spikes near turbulent periods, forecasts economic activity and its innovations hold a significant and negative equity premium. Unlike other uncertainty indexes, our index is supported by equilibrium models, which relate the difference of options prices across moneyness to uncertainty. Moreover, our index is based on investment decisions, can be easily and continuously updated and is comparable across countries.
期刊介绍：
Annals of Finance provides an outlet for original research in all areas of finance and its applications to other disciplines having a clear and substantive link to the general theme of finance. In particular, innovative research papers of moderate length of the highest quality in all scientific areas that are motivated by the analysis of financial problems will be considered. Annals of Finance''s scope encompasses - but is not limited to - the following areas: accounting and finance, asset pricing, banking and finance, capital markets and finance, computational finance, corporate finance, derivatives, dynamical and chaotic systems in finance, economics and finance, empirical finance, experimental finance, finance and the theory of the firm, financial econometrics, financial institutions, mathematical finance, money and finance, portfolio analysis, regulation, stochastic analysis and finance, stock market analysis, systemic risk and financial stability. Annals of Finance also publishes special issues on any topic in finance and its applications of current interest. A small section, entitled finance notes, will be devoted solely to publishing short articles – up to ten pages in length, of substantial interest in finance. Officially cited as: Ann Finance
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
分享
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
扫码关注我们
